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August 27, 2025

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Respondents were also cautious about AI and focused on strategic investment

Despite economic uncertainty and rapid technological change, small business owners across the U.S. are entering the next 12 months with confidence and optimism. According to the first edition of the Comerica Small Business Pulse Index™, 81% of surveyed small businesses expect revenue growth, while many are embracing artificial intelligence (AI) with both enthusiasm and caution.

The national survey of 1,010 small business owners, conducted August 1-13, 2025, reveals that they are optimistic about the future, increasingly tech-forward, and calling for thoughtful oversight of emerging technologies.

"Small businesses are the heartbeat of our communities and local economies," says Larry Franco, Executive Vice President and National Director of Retail & Small Business Banking, Comerica Bank. "It's imperative to be tapped into what's influencing and impacting small businesses. We launched the Comerica Small Business Pulse Index™ to do exactly that – identify successes and challenges these businesses are facing right now to help a broad group of entities, from financial providers to consumers and other business owners, better know how to serve, support and strengthen small businesses around them."

Key Findings from the Comerica Small Business Pulse Index™

• AI Adoption Is Accelerating: 45% of surveyed small businesses report using AI tools today, with adoption highest in the Technology (64%) and Professional Services (58%) sectors.
• Top AI Use Cases: Marketing, content creation, and data analysis are the most valuable applications of AI among adopters.
• AI Challenges Remain: Mistakes, tech vulnerabilities, and learning curves are the top concerns for both current and prospective AI users.
• Capital Investment (CapEx) Outlook Is Mixed: While 32% of the respondents plan to invest up to $100,000 in the next 12 months, 45% report no CapEx plans. Technology and Construction industries lead in planned investment.
• Confidence Is Strong: 83% of surveyed small businesses are confident in their future success, especially those with $500,000+ in revenue and/or 10+ employees.
• Inflation Tops the List of Concerns: 23% of respondents cite inflation as the most considerable threat to their business, followed by tariffs and cash flow challenges.

AI Regulation and the Road Ahead

"Small business owners see the potential of AI, but they also understand the need for responsible oversight," remarks Franco.

While AI adoption is growing, so is the conversation around its governance. Although AI users, as a whole are less likely than non-users to support stricter regulation, those in the Technology and Professional Services industries (which lead in both adoption rate and breadth of use) are actually more supportive of increased oversight compared to AI users in other industries—suggesting those most experienced with AI may also be the most attuned to its potential risks.

Support for stricter AI regulation also varies considerably by age. Whereas younger business owners are more likely to embrace AI with fewer restrictions, older generations show a stronger preference for oversight. Just 42% of Gen Z respondents favor tighter regulation, compared to 53% of Millennial respondents, 57% of Gen X respondents, and 66% of Baby Boomer respondents.

Despite concerns, most small business owners responding to the survey remain optimistic about AI's impact on employment. A total of 64% of all small businesses surveyed do not believe AI will replace jobs in their industry within the next five years. This sentiment is even stronger among those not planning to adopt AI (74%), with a majority of current AI users (60%) also sharing the same view – indicating a broad confidence in AI as a complement rather than a threat to the workforce.

Confidence, Capital, and the Growth Horizon

Small business owners are looking ahead to the next year with confidence and momentum, according to the survey. That confidence is especially pronounced among firms with higher revenues and employee counts. Those in operation for 4-7 years report the highest levels of optimism, outpacing both younger startups and more established firms.

Market outlooks are similarly upbeat, with nearly two-thirds of respondents expecting conditions to improve. Optimism is strongest in the Midwest and South, where 67% anticipate better conditions, compared to 56% in the Northeast and 60% on the West Coast. Businesses already using AI are also notably more hopeful, with 70% predicting improved market conditions versus 53% among non-users who have no plan to use AI in the near term. The Retail & Wholesale sector, however, reports the lowest optimism, likely reflecting early impacts from tariffs. Among the 14% who foresee a downturn, concerns about tariffs and government policy are twice as common.

Sales growth expectations are robust, with 81% of the responding small businesses anticipating gains. While 41% project modest growth of 1-10%, nearly 30% expect double-digit increases. The Technology sector stands out as the most bullish, while Retail, Hospitality, and Manufacturing – sectors that also report higher concern over tariffs – show more variability.

About the Survey
The Comerica Small Business Pulse Index™ surveyed 1,010 small business owners across the U.S. between August 1-13, 2025. The survey has a margin of error of ±3.1% at a 95% confidence level.

About Comerica Bank 
Comerica Bank is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), which is a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and strategically aligned by three business segments: The Commercial Bank, The Retail Bank and Wealth Management. Comerica, one of the 25 largest commercial U.S. financial holding companies, focuses on building relationships and helping people and businesses be successful. Comerica provides banking centers across the country with locations in Arizona, California, Florida, Michigan and Texas. Founded on Aug. 17, 1849, in Detroit, Michigan, Comerica continues to expand into new regions, including its Southeast Market, based in North Carolina, and Mountain West Market in Colorado. Comerica has offices in 15 states and services 13 of the 15 largest U.S. metropolitan areas, as well as Canada and Mexico. Comerica reported total assets of $78.0 billion at June 30, 2025. Learn more about how Comerica is raising expectations of what a bank can be by visiting www.comerica.com, and follow us on Facebook, X, Instagram and LinkedIn.

SOURCE Comerica Bank